America has faced waves of terror before, and strength—not slogans—made the difference. An expert who has tracked jihadist movements for decades says the danger today is broader, better protected, and fueled by political hesitation that invites more attacks.
“The most dangerous terrorist group 24 years after 9/11 remains al Qaeda,” Bill Roggio said. “With the support of the Taliban, the situation there is far worse than it was pre-9/11.”
Roggio, senior editor of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Long War Journal, warned that the network’s footprint is expanding. He said al Qaeda is running training camps in at least 13 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces and pushing outward across the Middle East and Africa.
“Its global organization remains intact. It controls probably more than a third of Somalia and then, it’s so-called former affiliate – and I’m not convinced the links have been broken – now controls the government of Syria, with the Hayat Tahir Al Sham as its leader.
“President \[Donald] Trump, even welcomed the takeover, the ouster of Bashar Al Assad. This was a mistake, in my estimation,” he added. “It’s a group that has proven to be clever, to be committed.”
Beyond geography, Roggio highlighted the core advantage terrorists gain when the West looks away. “The number one concern I have for the threat of terrorism is the rise in safe havens for these groups,” he said. “Afghanistan – al Qaeda, running training camps, the Iranians continuing to provide safe haven, countries like Iraq, where the Shia militias are permitted to operate, al-Shabab – al Qaeda branch in Somalia – has safe haven in the areas they control.”
“This is where, when terrorist groups have the time, the space and the security to plot, to execute, to recruit, to raise funds, they can conduct an attack like 9/11 and they have that in multiple places now,” Roggio added.
Technology is multiplying the danger. State sponsors like Iran funnel weapons to proxies, while cheap drones and widely available AI lower the barrier to sophisticated attacks. As Roggio noted, terrorists do not need top-shelf tools to kill at scale.
“Nobody thought that box cutters and some training on airlines would lead to 9/11 and yet it happened,” he said.
Roggio also warned that public sentiment is drifting the wrong way, emboldening violent groups that cloak themselves in politics. “When you look at the attitudes toward jihadist organizations, look at the support for Hamas today… the rise in antisemitism and the decrease in support for Israel – these are all indicators that things are trending for the jihadist organizations.
“To me, these are indications that we have lost the war on terror,” he added.
The path back, he argued, is moral clarity matched with resolve to dismantle sanctuaries and confront the regimes that enable them. “We defeated Nazi Germany,” he pointed out. “It’s something that can be done. We had the will to do it.
“Our hesitation, our unwillingness, our lack of commitment in these countries has emboldened them and again,” Roggio said. “Until we remove the state sponsorship, until we are able to effectively deal with the purveyors of the radical ideology, these threats will persist.”
That warning tracks with a simple truth conservatives understand: peace comes from strength, not wishful thinking. America needs a hard reset—name the enemy, choke off state sponsors, rebuild deterrence, and back our allies without apology. Do that with conviction, and the killers lose their havens, their funding, and their future.