Former Vice President Kamala Harris may have decided against a run for California governor, but Democrats are realizing she may not have a path to the White House in 2028 either. Instead, the real threat emerging within the party appears to be New York progressive firebrand Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Despite doubts from many political observers, early polling reveals that Ocasio-Cortez is positioned far better than Harris ever was at this point before a presidential election. In fact, polling aggregator Race to the White House puts AOC in third place among likely Democratic nominees, already ahead of Harris, who continues to see declining enthusiasm among voters.
A recent poll from AtlasIntel revealed that in a direct matchup, Ocasio-Cortez already leads Kamala Harris by four points, 19% to 15%. Even more troubling for Harris, political betting markets such as Polymarket place Ocasio-Cortez as the second-most likely nominee behind California Governor Gavin Newsom, while Harris trails far behind.
Ocasio-Cortez’s favorability rating now exceeds those of prominent Democrats, including former Vice President Harris herself. With a 46% approval rating, AOC surpasses Harris, who holds just 42%. These numbers indicate a troubling shift for Democrats as voters seem increasingly ready to embrace Ocasio-Cortez’s radical left-wing vision.
Remarkably, AOC appears competitive even in hypothetical general election matchups against Vice President J.D. Vance. Polls from Emerson indicate Ocasio-Cortez runs nearly even with other leading Democrats, trailing Vance by just three points—a performance on par with Newsom and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Beyond polls, AOC is demonstrating unmatched strength in fundraising and rally attendance. Recent reports revealed she raised an astonishing $15 million in 2025 alone—nearly double that of Republican Speaker Mike Johnson. Almost all these contributions came from small-dollar donors, reflecting real grassroots enthusiasm.
In stark contrast, Kamala Harris is struggling to inspire even her past supporters. Though Harris raised impressive sums during her failed 2024 presidential bid, donor fatigue and a noticeable lack of enthusiasm are now setting in among major Democratic donors. Many openly question her ability to energize the party base in another White House bid.
But enthusiasm is something Ocasio-Cortez has in spades. Her recent rallies have consistently drawn massive crowds, with tens of thousands showing up in cities such as Los Angeles and Denver. Even more surprising, AOC drew unexpectedly large crowds in traditionally Republican states like Idaho and Montana—areas typically hostile to progressive politics.
Democrats now face a dilemma. Many privately doubt AOC’s electability due to her young age—she will be just 39 by Election Day in 2028—and her far-left views, which could alienate moderate voters nationwide. Yet these same radical positions energize Democratic primary voters, giving her a critical advantage in securing the nomination.
Meanwhile, Harris remains caught between progressive voters skeptical of her record and moderates who have never fully warmed to her. Having struggled to find traction during her own presidential run, Harris now faces even steeper hurdles in building support for another campaign.
Ocasio-Cortez might also choose a safer path to boost her credibility by challenging Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in the next midterms. Polling earlier this year showed her leading Schumer by nearly 20 points. A victory there would solidify her as a powerful force within the party.
As Democrats weigh their options, Ocasio-Cortez’s surprising momentum spells potential chaos. Party insiders recognize that while AOC could mobilize younger, progressive voters, her extreme positions may also fracture the party, paving the way for Republicans to secure another decisive victory in 2028.
For Republicans, this internal Democratic turmoil is exactly what they need to remain united and ensure conservative values stay in the White House.