The US placed sanctions on Russia, hoping that it would cause their government to collapse. However, that’s not what happened.
U.S. sanctions were placed on Russia’s economy following the invasion of Ukraine. This should have crippled the Russian government. Instead, they learned how to adapt.
Despite over 4,000 sanctions, Russia has shown resilience. Economists like Oleg Itskhoki and Elina Ribakova argue that the staggered application of sanctions rather than immediate, comprehensive measures allowed Russia to adapt, leveraging lessons from previous sanctions in 2014.
Janet Yellen, the US Secretary of Treasury, remains hopeful that sanctions will weaken Russia, commenting, “We continue cracking down on Russian sanctions evasion and have strengthened and expanded our ability to target foreign financial institutions and anyone else around the world supporting Russia’s war machine.”
Russia’s economic adaptation includes pivoting towards countries like China and India, which are not fully participating in the sanctions, thereby weakening their global effectiveness. The sanctions, while extensive, have not significantly curtailed Russia’s ability to engage in trade or military production, as evidenced by their continued economic activity and military operations.
This situation underscores the challenges of economic warfare against adaptable adversaries and the necessity for broader, more coordinated international cooperation for sanctions to be truly effective.
