A recent study claims that while millions of potentially habitable planets exist within the Milky Way, merely four of them possibly host malevolent alien societies willing to launch an assault against humanity—should they possess the capability to traverse space-time. This eyebrow-raising assertion stems from researcher Alberto Caballero’s latest work, which was uploaded to the online repository arXiv.
Intrigue surrounds Cabellero’s investigation into gauging the likelihood of encountering aggressive extraterrestrial entities amid ongoing advancements toward establishing communication channels beyond terrestrial confines. By delving into historical records of nation-state conflicts spanning nearly a century (from 1915 onwards), Caballero aimed to quantify humankind’s propensity for invasive behavior vis-a-vis hypothetical planetary encounters.
As the study states, “This paper attempts to provide an estimation of the prevalence of hostile extraterrestrial civilizations through an extrapolation of the probability that we, as the human civilization, would attack or invade an inhabited exoplanet.”
Upon tallying instances where sovereign states resorted to forceful expansionism across various continents, Cabellerro discovered fifty-one such occurrences among Earth’s 195 recognized nationalities throughout recorded history. Notably, America topped the chart with fourteen documented incursions. Next, he factored in respective shares of worldwide defense expenditures attributed to each participating nation; once again, the United States emerged atop the rankings, commanding thirty-eight percent of collective international allocations.
By aggregating probabilities derived from both factors mentioned above, Cabalerreo arrived at what he terms ‘current human probability of invasion’ stands at roughly 0.028%.
However, crucial context lies in recognizing present-day constraints hindering humanity’s capacity for intergalactic exploration. According to calculations grounded upon the esteemed Kardashov Scale, which assesses civilizational progress via energetic output levels, mankind remains centuries away from attaining the capabilities necessary for traversing vast cosmic expanses.
Should prevailing trends persistently guide human evolution forward, prospects indicate a minuscule chance—approximately 0.0014%–that Homo sapiens shall breach territorial sovereignty elsewhere amidst distant star systems come 259 years henceforth.
Now juxtapose this seemingly infinitesimal risk alongside estimates suggesting tens-of-thousands-strong populations inhabiting nearby celestial bodies—a staggering figure culled from mathematical models presented in Mathematical SETI publications dating back to 2012—and suddenly even minute chances assume significance.
Ultimately, Caballero posits fewer than single-digit numbers of belligerent type-I civilizations coexisting amongst galactical peers. In a conversation with Vice News, however, he hinted at broader implications encompassing non-interstellar-capable counterparts numbering close to five whole units. When pressed regarding omissions related thereto in his original manuscript, Caballero clarified:
“I don’t mention the 4.42 civilizations in my paper because 1) we don’t know whether all the civilizations in the galaxy are like us… and 2) a civilization like us would probably not pose a threat to another one since we don’t have the technology to travel to their planet.”
While acknowledging remote possibilities surrounding intercivilization hostility, Caballero emphasizes reassuring statistics underscoring negligible threats posed by putative invaders relative to cataclysmic natural disasters akin to dinosaur-extinguishing meteor impacts occurring every million-plus years (‘probability of extraterrestrial invasion by a civilization whose planet we message is…around two orders of magnitude lower than the probability of a planet-killer asteroid collision’).
Criticisms notwithstanding, Caballero concedes methodological shortcomings rooted primarily in the anthropocentric biases informing his analysis. As matters stand today, understanding extraterritorial cognition appears relegated to speculative realms pending further breakthroughs bridging the chasmatic knowledge gaps separating humanity from cosmos-dwelling contemporaries.
