As Election Day on November 3rd approaches, the polls are tightening and President Trump is surging.
Even the Fake News Media is now forced to take notice of the trend.
CBS Pittsburgh reports that polls in the race between President Trump and area Bingo Parlor Janitor Joe Biden are tightening in Pennsylvania.
“Last week’s poll, we had Biden up by seven, approximately seven over Trump. This week, only four,” says Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs.
President Trump is surging and positioned to win – EXACTLY where he needs to be two weeks out from Election Day.
Cue the Fake News Media panic: the New York Times, Washington Post, MSNBC, and CNN are circling the wagons and working overtime to prop up Joe Biden’s deadbeat candidacy.
CNN’s idea of a poll is calling the DNC and asking how big of a lead they want. The books are cooked.
As the race gets heated expect the polls to only become more inaccurate.
“Biden and Trump tied in Texas,” reports the Quinnipiac University poll. Who is Quinnipiac polling, a college dormitory in Austin? Baristas with Sociology degrees between the ages of 21 and 35? Even Democrats are laughing at how ludicrous some of these polls are that report that Democrats are competitive in ruby red republican strongholds such as Georgia and Texas.
Pollsters have always tried to burnish the credibility, accuracy, and scientific rigor of polling since George Gallup first opened his public polling firm in 1935. George Gallup was an American pioneer of survey sampling techniques and inventor of the Gallup poll, a successful statistical method of survey sampling for measuring public opinion.
Fast forward to the present day and pollsters have…well…let’s just say they’ve really let themselves go. What counts for a poll is whatever number Jim Acosta makes up in the shower that morning. We all know what happened in 2016: the polls were wildly inaccurate, Hillary lost, and Trump won. It’s happening again in 2020 and the Democrats and the Fake News Media have no one to blame but themselves.
In these dishonest times, who can we trust? Can polling ever be trusted? Enter the Trafalgar Group.
The Fake News Media likes to use the term “reputable poll” to describe polls that fall within the self-intoxicating mainstream media consensus. Meanwhile, polling firms such as Trafalgar Group, which are solidly outside the Fake News Media Hivemind, are producing more consistently accurate results. Isn’t it funny how the reputable polls are disreputable and the disreputable polls are reputable?
Robert Cahaly is the founder of the Trafalgar Group and sees Trump on the path to victory in 2020. Cahaly was born in Georgia and worked his way up in politics. After starting a political consulting firm in the late 1990s, Cahaly expanded into polling are noticing that the polling results he was getting weren’t accurate.
What’s Cahaly’s track record? In 2016, Trafalgar Group correctly predicted President Trump’s win in Pennsylvania and Michigan, they had the most accurate polls in five of the battleground states, and they correctly predicted the total Electoral College outcome of Trump’s 306 to Hillary’s 232.
“I’ve got to get past what you want to say in public and get to what you really feel,” Cahaly says. “Because what’s in your heart is going to be what’s on that ballot.”
“I don’t believe in long questionnaires,” Cahaly says. “I think when you’re calling up Mom or Dad on a school night, and they’re trying to get the kids dinner and get them to bed, and that phone rings at seven o’clock — and they’re supposed to stop what they’re doing and take a 25- to 30-question poll? No way.”
Why does that matter? “You end up disproportionately representing the people who will like to talk about politics, which is going to skew toward the very, very conservative and the very, very liberal and the very, very bored, “Cahaly explains. “And the kind of people that win elections are the people in the middle. So I think they miss people in the middle when they do things that way.”
According to Cahaly, most polls are more than 25 questions. He keeps it between seven and nine, so respondents can answer in a matter of minutes.
Then there is how the questions are asked. “We do not like to do all live calls,” Cahaly says.
People with unpopular opinions “don’t want to be judged by somebody on the phone that they don’t know.” If this was always true, it’s particularly so now: “They’ve seen all this stuff of people being shamed for their opinion, people losing their jobs.”
“We use collection methods of live calls, auto calls, texts, emails, and a couple that we call our proprietary digital technology that we don’t explain, but it’s also digital,” Cahaly says. The point, he continues, is to “really push the anonymous part — this is your anonymous say-so.”
Another factor is that “conservatives are less likely to participate in polls in general,” he says. “We see a five-to-one refusal rate among conservatives.” That means “you’ve got to work very hard to get a fair representation of conservatives when you do any kind of a survey.”
According to Cahaly, the likeliest Trump electoral path to victory involves winning the battlegrounds of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and either Michigan or Pennsylvaniaamong the former Blue Wall states (assuming he doesn’t lose states such as Iowa or Ohio).
Here’s what Cahaly and the Trafalgar Group say will happen in 2020: Cahaly says that Trump will win North Carolina and Florida. Trump is ahead of Biden in both Arizona and Michigan and likely to win both. Right now, Cahaly, says, Trump is slightly behind in Pennsylvania.
“Right now, we’ve got him down in Pennsylvania,” he says, “I think if it were held today, the undecided would break toward Trump and there’d be some hidden vote. He’d probably win Pennsylvania. But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.”
“If it all happened right now,” he maintains, “my best guess would be an Electoral College victory [for President Trump] in the high to 270s, low 280s.”